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GCC Credit: Key Factors Driving Risk Amidst Tightening EM Liquidity

Recent US liquidity tightening is triggering Emerging Market (‘EM’) fund outflows and broader spread widening. This will accelerate the further investor discrimination between GCC credits. Oil prices remain the key systemic factor driving credit risk but idiosyncratic structural, FX, reform and political factors will become more prominent for investors in assessing the sovereign credit risk that anchors each market given public sector dominance of the economy. This article provides an overview of risk drivers we feel will impact GCC credit going forward and is an extract of the full paper. Click to Read Summary


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